A few years ago, climate change was perceived as more of a conspiracy theory than as a devastating process provoked by the hand of man. Today, it is already clear that the forecasts that seemed to be catastrophic have fallen short of the mark. In fact, the Mediterranean will be, together with the Arctic, the region of the world most affected by climate change, and that is why the Spanish autonomous regions bathed by this sea already admitted two years ago that they will have to live with its exacerbated effects.
Even with this real information, it is difficult to imagine the Ibicencan coastal populations engulfed by a sea that is overheating as never before in the history of mankind. But that image will come, and not for many years.
In the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) has issued a stark warning: if global warming does not exceed an increase of 1.5°C, many of the coastal cities threatened by rising sea levels will survive, but if the temperature rises by 3 degrees, they will all be buried under water. And this could happen as early as 2050 if the situation is not reversed.
Ibiza, under water in seven decades
During the COP, world maps have been made public in which future climate consequences can be projected, by years, and by type of forecast: optimistic, average and pessimistic. In order to avoid being catastrophic, Diario de Ibiza has configured the maps with an average forecast. And yet the results are devastating and support the forecasts made by NASA.
Global mean sea level rose approximately 0.76 centimeters from 2022 to 2023, an unfortunately historic jump due mainly to climate warming and the development of a strong phenomenon, El Niño, according to data recently presented by NASA.
The catastrophic impact that this rise in sea level may have on the ecosystem is incalculable, and also on the very geography of the Balearic Islands. And it won’t be long now, as those who were born in these years will experience it. The NASA forecast is that in 2100 the sea level in Ibiza will have risen by almost half a meter (0.49 centimeters). This data is established within a “normal” scenario, but if we take into account more catastrophic forecasts (but not improbable), in the year 2100 the sea level in the archipelago could rise more than one meter, according to NASA estimates, then the consequences will be devastating, without palliatives.
Talamanca disappears in 2100
During COP 28, Climate Central (an independent group of scientists and communicators researching climate change) presented some of the most important climate change research projects in the world interactive world maps to detect, with current projections of global temperature and sea level rise, which areas will be buried under the sea.
With these assumptions, it is clear that in 2100 the southwest zone of Ibiza will be the most affected by the sea level rise.
As can be seen in the map below, particularly from the beginning of Talamaca to almost Jesúsif not remedied, the whole area will be buried by water in 76 years. To make it clear: the Hostal Talamanca, the Hotel Nobu and all the houses in Camí Vell, for example, will disappear.
Passeig Joan Carles I will also be affected. If the sea level rises one meter in 2100 (NASA sees it feasible), to name a few well-known places, the Vila health center, the Pacha discotheque, the Capuccino or the Keeper bar may disappear (and countless other homes).
In addition, s’Illa Plana would be separated from Ibiza.
The Talamanca area, under water in 2100, according to Climate Central / CC
The airport is in danger
Another of Ibiza’s flooded areas due to rising sea levels will be Sant Jordi. In fact, the Natural Park of ses Salines will become one of the most affected places, as it loses much of its surface, including the famous beaches of ses Salines or es Cavallet.
As for the salt zone the sea will eliminate the land barrier of es Codolar, which will allow all the salt ponds to be flooded.
This mass of water will reach right to the side of the ibiza airportthe airport could become unusable, or at least some of its runways.
Sant Jordi area, flooded in 2100 / CC