The number that will be drawn in the special Christmas 2023 draw is already known and, not only that, it is sold out, so there is no need to look for it. With less than a month and a half to go until we hear the children of San Ildefonso sing, a simple statistical game, involving Artificial Intelligence (ChatGPT4) analysing data on this draw from its beginnings in 1812 to 2022, predicted on Monday which number was the most likely to be drawn. And the only administration in the province that had it is in Elche, was the number 26, “La Cordobesa”. Its managers sold it out in a matter of minutes.
The truth is that I didn’t have many of them (basses are not very popular and end up scattered all over the country, as was the case) but they were sold out in a matter of minutes after they were announced. More than one would think that it is a nonsense, but it is not going to be that…. From 1812 to 2022 there have been 210 Christmas drawings, with the singularity that in 1938in the middle of the Civil War, there were two, one for each side. Anecdotes like this one have given more tradition if possible to this historic lottery. Who has dreamed the number, who has bought it at the last minute, who has been sent by a friend from the other end of the earth …. is heard every time the journalists interview the winners under a shower of champagne.
and how does an artificial intelligence know what it is going to be? ChatGPT4 took into account the most frequent numbers in each position in this draw (not in the rest) from 1812, when the game was established, until 2022. And came to these conclusions. By tens of thousands, the number 0 has been the beginning of the winner 64 times. The 1, 43 times; the 2, 30 times; the 3, 22 times; the 4, 23 times; the 5, 16 times; the 6, seven times; the 7, six times; the 8, once; and the 9, never. In units of thousands there are two tied: the numbers 2 and 3, with 29 times, ahead of 5, with 25 times; and 0, 9 and 6 with 20 times. The least, 7, only 12 times. In hundreds, the 6 is the most common onewith 29 occurrences. It is followed by 5, with 27 times, and 0, with 25. 9 is the least frequent, with 13. In tens, the most common is 9with 28 times. It is followed by 5, with 25 and 7 and 8 with 23. The least common is 3 with 16, in units, is 5, with 31 times. It is followed by 6, with 26; while 0 and 7 have been the termination in 23 times. The least, 1, with only 8.
Things that ChatGPT4 did not take into account
Perhaps he did not take into account that until very few years ago there was one of the most important changes in the Christmas Lottery. Specifically, in 2011, when the numbers were increased, which then only went up to the 85.000 and not up to 99.999 as it is today. In other words, in this cold statistic our ChatGPT4 has not taken into account that the tens of thousands numbers 8 and 9 have only been played for a very few years, twelve to be exact. That explains why the 9 has never come up or that the 8 has done so only once (until 2011 it was half as likely as the rest).
Since there is a tie for second position (units of thousands) between 2 and 3, this would give us two numbers as the statistically most likely: 02695 or 03695. The second of these is the one that has been sold out in Elche. I’m sure the first one, wherever it is, will also be sold out, but there is still time to try your luck.
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