The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has raised the alert level for heavy rain in Ibiza and Formentera to orange this Thursday. Just a week after the catastrophic dana that caused extensive damage across the Pityusic Islands, meteorologists are warning of very heavy rainfall, with a 70% probability. The storm will be accompanied by northeasterly winds.
Forecasts indicate up to 40 litres per square metre could fall in one hour, with total accumulations reaching 100 litres per square metre in four hours.
The orange warning will be in effect from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Probability of a new dana
Weather models confirm a change in the weather pattern beginning late on Wednesday. Rainfall is expected to continue through Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with a probability above 90%, while instability will persist into Monday, when the likelihood of rain remains around 70%. “The rain will be more persistent than torrential”, Aemet noted on social media.
Meteorologists from Meteored explain that the current atmospheric patterns show all the ingredients for a new dana to develop. “With a combination of cold air at high altitude, humid surface winds, a still-warm Mediterranean and the effects of orography, locally heavy or very heavy rain and thunderstorms could occur in the east and the Balearic Islands. For now, the European model predicts that the heaviest accumulations will be concentrated in the Valencian Community, where totals could locally exceed 100–200 l/m²”, they added.