Historically, at least as long as there have been records, during the fall one or several cold drops or DANA -synonyms of “isolated depression in high levels” of the atmosphere-, as it is called now. But the violence of the one that devastated a week ago a wide area of Valencia is extraordinary.
The delegate and spokesperson of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in the Balearic Islands, María José Guerreroagrees with other experts that these atmospheric phenomena, which are produced by the confluence of several very specific circumstances, are not normal, but may be repeated on a more regular basis in the coming years as a result of climate change. And with greater virulence.
What has happened in Valencia has a scientific explanation, and Guerrero clarifies it in a very didactic waya Levante wind that crosses a warmer sea than usual (typical after a summer with higher than normal temperatures) arrives at the peninsular coast and encounters a mountain range and a cold air pocket in the upper atmosphere. It is the ideal mixture, the “typical one that produces intense precipitation during all autumns”. But what has devastated Valencia “is not normal, it is extraordinary,” Guerrero insists.
Ibiza and Formentera are just over 165 kilometers from Valencia and therefore share a Mediterranean climate and very similar weather conditions. But in the Pitiusas there are no mountain ranges of relevance, a detail that somehow protects them from these devastating phenomena. Guerrero considers, therefore, that it is “unlikely” that Ibiza and Formentera will suffer this type of flooding, “they are not in the same situation” as Valencia “and in fact this DANA has not affected practically the islands”. But he admits that “it’s not impossible either.”.
For all these reasons, this expert recalls that “if there is a small possibility” that a DANA of this magnitude will hit Ibiza and Formentera, it is necessary to “keep an eye on the forecast models” that allow us to warn of possible phenomena of this type to take measures and try to minimize its effects”. And he does not go into analyzing what went wrong in Valencia, “it is not our business,” he insists even if he is asked again.
“It is unlikely,” he reiterates about the possibility of a similar catastrophe in the Pitiusas, but “we must be aware of the warnings of the Aemet because it is not totally impossible. Y we have to be aware of doing our job the best we can”he adds with a certain demanding tone.
For the full article, please visit Diario de Ibiza website here.