The sandy beaches of Ibiza and Formentera could lose up to 60% of their surface area by the end of the century as a result of climate change and rising sea levels, according to a new doctoral study carried out at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB).
The research provides new scientific methods and predictive models to better understand how coastal environments in the Balearic Islands are likely to evolve under future climate scenarios. The findings highlight growing risks for coastal tourism, beach erosion, and the islands’ natural protection against increasingly frequent storms.
Conducted by researcher Pau Luque Lozano under the supervision of Alejandro Orfila from IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) and Marta Marcos from the UIB’s Department of Physics, the study focuses on regional and local-scale coastal dynamics within the field of physical oceanography.
Using advanced numerical simulations, researchers assessed future coastal flooding and shoreline erosion under an extreme climate scenario in which sea levels rise by up to 103 centimetres by 2100.
The projections reveal that 36.5 square kilometres of coastal land could become permanently flooded, while the area affected by storm-driven flooding could increase by 41%. Even more concerning, 60% of the Balearic Islands’ beaches could lose more than half of their current width, fundamentally reshaping some of the Mediterranean’s most iconic coastlines.
Researchers warn that the consequences extend well beyond environmental damage. The study estimates that shrinking beaches could have a significant economic impact, reducing the Balearic Islands’ 2019 GDP by approximately 7.2%, largely due to the region’s dependence on tourism and its coastal economy.
The second phase of the research introduced new shoreline retreat models that improve upon traditional forecasting methods by incorporating variables such as wave dynamics, tides, and sediment availability. The results indicate that narrow beaches, which are common throughout the Balearic archipelago, are especially vulnerable because they have less sand available to naturally offset erosion.
In the final stage, scientists developed an innovative Frequency-Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar system, capable of monitoring wave conditions and generating seafloor depth maps at distances of up to 500 metres without requiring external calibration. The technology enables continuous, high-precision monitoring of beach conditions, providing valuable data for long-term coastal management.
According to the University of the Balearic Islands, the research underscores the urgent need to combine advanced climate models, real-world environmental data, and innovative monitoring technologies to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean coastlines.
The tools developed through this research could help policymakers design more effective and sustainable coastal management strategies, protecting both the natural ecosystems and the tourism-driven economy that define the Balearic Islands.